Belmont Park Preview Saturday July 11: Pistol Pete on the Beaufine Stakes, the Value Play, and a Race of Opinions

The Beaufine Stakes is the feature at Belmont this Saturday and Pistol Pete Anthonisz joined Gareth Hall on SEN Track's Giddy Up to break it down. It's a stacked field — almost every runner is coming first-up out of trials — which makes the map work more important than usual. PA has worked through it and landed on two plays, with one at a price he thinks is simply too big to ignore.

Track Conditions

No detailed track update at time of recording, but with Belmont no longer using the chute for 1000-metre races — horses now begin on the turn — the starting configuration shapes the entire race. Wide draws mean wide runners have to cover ground immediately, fast tempo is near-certain, and horses drawn at the fence face the real risk of looking up backsides for the entire straight. The map is everything here.

The Beaufine Stakes — Jaz Session and Madhi Girl

Pete's starting point is the pace map, and it tells a clear story. Sinful Living from the inside draw, Desert Whisper and Snowdome from wide, all likely to come across and create a genuine burn early. That pushes the advantage away from the fence — horses drawn at barriers 1 and 2 like Final Siren and Madhi Girl risk getting swallowed up on the inside if they don't move — and towards the potential gaps three-wide line in midfield.

That's exactly where Jaz Session profiles to settle.

At around $14, PA thinks Jaz Session is too big. She has genuine tactical speed to find a midfield three-wide position, her figures over both the 1000 and 1200 are strong, and she's actually started shorter than Madhi Girl twice in recent starts. Pistol's view is she should be in single figures. At $14 you have to have something on.

Madhi Girl is the second play at $5.50. Willie Pike is back on from barrier 2, and Pete suspects Pike knows the inside gate is a potential trap in this race — he wouldn't be surprised to see him push out of the gates and try to hold a position one off the fence rather than settle on the rail and risk going nowhere. First trial was good, the second came on a near-bog track so Pistol's treating it as inconclusive. With Pike working it out from the gates, she has to be in the race.

The Horses PA Can't Get

Luana Miss is equal favourite at $5.50 and Pistol is loathe to dismiss her — she's a giant killer who went around at 30-to-1 in the Max Simmonds a couple of preps ago and probably should have won. But he can't have her at the current quote. She's one of those horses that divides opinion, and PA lands in the camp of respecting her without backing her at this price.

Oscar's Fortune is acknowledged as a genuine chance — won first-up last prep without a trial — but the setup makes it difficult to attack with confidence, with a big topweight vs some progressive rivals. Repossession is another PA has marked longer than the current market. Both are horses he's stepping over rather than against.

Twisted Steel is the final one in the market, with an awful barrier to contend with here. CJP will need his best work early to either slot in with cover, or possibly try and jag a spot on-pace. But if that happens they're going super quick and he may well be too close to the speed first-up. Looks a risk at the price. 

Deep Lyric — One to Watch

Separate to the feature, PA flagged Deep Lyric out of Race 3 as a horse with a big first-up flashing light last start on debut, where it was beaten by Zourun Run for the Neville Parnham stable. Luke Fernie has been enthusiastic about the horse's upside. Worth noting ahead of the full card preview as more form comes to hand through the week.

Conclusion

In a wide-open Beaufine Stakes built around a fast map and first-up runners, Pete has cut through the noise and landed on Jaz Session as the standout value play and Madhi Girl as the logical dutch play. $14 about a horse that should be in single figures is the kind of opportunity that doesn't come around too often.

For independent analysis on every Belmont feature race and beyond — no bookmaker backing, no house interest — a Mailbag subscription is where the serious punters are. Catch Pete's full segment at The Mailbag Radio page.