Mailbag News
Belmont Park has a genuine feature race on Saturday with the Raconteur Stakes headlining, and Pistol Pete Anthonisz joined Gareth Hall on SEN Track's Giddy Up to work through the card. Pistol's got a clear best bet and a two-pronged Race 9 play
Belmont Park has a genuine feature race on Saturday with the Raconteur Stakes headlining, and Pistol Pete Anthonisz joined Gareth Hall on SEN Track's Giddy Up to work through the card. Pistol's got a clear best bet and a two-pronged Race 9 play.
Track Conditions
Rail is out 8 metres and Pistol's standard operating procedure applies: assess the early races, and stamp the track by races three or four onwards to gauge where the winners are coming from. If the favourites are settling and aren't winning from a particular part of the track, adjust accordingly. No predetermined bias — just process.
The Raconteur Stakes — Hot And High Likely, But Short
Hot And High is the $2.40 favourite stepping up to 1400 metres and Pistol's view is she'll get every chance from barrier 4 — likely leading by default with Fiery Spark and A Summer Fling potentially rolling forward but neither genuinely threatening her for the front if she wants it. Lanfranco and Peaceful Ruler are both unlikely to want to lead, which means the pace sets up around Hot And High.
The problem is the price. PA can't get her at that quote. He's watching the market late and wouldn't be surprised to see money come for Ladies Pro or Vatican Storm. Vatican Storm from barrier 2 could be an awkward watch if the track plays off the fence — but if the inside is holding, that draw could be the place to be. Note trainer Stefan Vahala suggested they would be aiming to hold the one-one, which puts him right in the picture. No firm play here from Pistol, but a race worth monitoring as the market develops through the week.
Race 1 — Overdrive, Best Bet of the Day
Overdrive from barrier 4, ridden by Chris Parnham, maps perfectly. Hezangelic from barrier 2 is your nominal leader and will likely cross Kelvinater — who wants more ground but still has good early speed — leaving Overdrive to coast across in Parnham's hands and control from a lovely position. Empress of India is the only other genuine speed influence, and Pistol rates Overdrive's best figures clearly superior to the rest of the field.
He was happy to back her at $3 and is comfortable taking down to $2.60. Race 1, number 4, Overdrive — best of the day.
Race 9 — Charino and a $40 Roughie
Charino is the main play. Drawing barrier 6, Pistol has the horse settling worse than midfield and building into the race from there. Second-up (last start) was never suited. Won third-up last prep, Holly Nottle sticks as a key to the horse's chances, and the profile says this is the race. Plenty of speed with Norich and Thermosphere Lad drawn wide providing a target to run at. Charino is number 3 and Pete's primary play in a good betting race.
Spectacular Park at $41 is the blowout. Pike was aboard first-up and has since moved to Yorga Pride, with apprentice Cassey Martinan taking over the ride for Grantham. Pete thought the trial was really good, barrier 4 draw is soft, and the first-up run was better than it looked on paper when never tested against the pattern. In a Belmont season that's already produced a handful of long-price winners, he's not letting this one go around without something on it.
Yorga Pride is the horse PA expects the market to firm for — her first-start record is strong and she'll attract support — but the trials were a touch iffy for his liking, so he's happy to take her on at a shortened quote.
For independent analysis on every Belmont meeting and beyond — no bookmaker backing, no house interest — a Mailbag subscription is where the serious punters are. Catch Pete's full segment at The Mailbag Radio page.
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