Belmont Park Preview Saturday May 23: Pistol Pete on the Provincial Championship Final and Where the Market's Got It Wrong

Belmont Park is set for a big one on Saturday. Around 125 horses nominated, the WA Provincial Championship Final as the feature, and Pistol Pete Anthonisz — The Mailbag's Western Australia correspondent — joining SEN Track's Giddy Up to tell us exactly where the market has gone to sleep. Listen to the full conversation here, or read on...

Track Conditions

Light southwesterly forecast, a touch of rain around Thursday, and we are expecting the track to race reasonably even by race day. Crucially, he thinks horses will be able to make ground if the right race shape develops — which is exactly the kind of setup where his speed map work pays off.

Race 8 — WA Provincial Championship Final

Rainline, trained by the Pearce brothers and ridden by William Pike, maps absolutely perfectly from barrier 4. In a race without a stack of genuine on-pace runners, PA says the horse looks "bomb proof" from a map perspective — Pike can slot in without having to do anything.

God Has Drifted is the other obvious one, drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 10 but likely to try and roll forward and find cover early. Outside of those two, the map looks a genuine mystery.

Race 5 — The Pateman Special to Storm Away

Storm Away, trained by the in-form Mitch Pateman, is Pete's clear lean at around $6.50. First-up over 1000 metres the horse peaked late, before good second-up — despite a run that didn't suit — and now looks ready third-up. Won third-up this track and distance last prep. This looks a superb opportunity to win again with any luck with race-shape.

He cheerfully noted he'd be "giving Mitch Pateman the kiss of death" by tipping it publicly. We'll take that risk.

Race 9 — The Vulnerable Favourite

Mississippi Dawn — winner first-up with a perfect run at around $40 — is now trading at a price Pistol thinks should be at least doubled. She maps negatively second-up, faces a stiffer test, and in his words, it's "impossible" to mark her this short based on what we've seen.

His plays against her: Correct Choice from barrier 5 (same stable, double-figure price, maps cleanly), and Chollima — Paul Harvey in the saddle for DMAC, which Pistol flagged as a Back to the Future scenario after reminiscing about his Belmont Sprint win on Universal Ruler in 2009 on Monday with the G-Man. Battle Commander also gets a mention as a horse mapping very kindly, possibly one run away from nearing his best but likely worth a save if odds allow come Saturday.

Conclusion

Clean speed maps, a vulnerable favourite, and a Pateman runner ready to peak. Pistol Pete's read on Belmont this Saturday is sharper than most of what you'll find elsewhere — and it doesn't come with a bookmaker's logo attached.

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