Belmont Park Preview Saturday May 30: Pistol Pete's Early Look at the Hyperion Stakes and the Vulnerable Favourite

Belmont Park gets a feature race Saturday with the Hyperion Stakes on the card, and Pistol Pete Anthonisz joined Gareth Hall on SEN Track's Giddy Up to work through the key races. There's 19.5 millimetres of overnight rain in the ground, listed as a soft 6 but that sounds optimistic, and a short-priced favourite Pistol thinks is being overestimated by the market. Sound familiar?

Track Conditions

Soft 6 as of Thursday morning, with no real wind forecast and sporadic rain still possible. Pistol is expecting the track to stay genuinely soft. He'd be surprised to see it bounce back to a good surface given the overnight rain. That matters enormously for how the feature race plays out.

The Hyperion Stakes — Rope Them In vs Western Empire

Western Empire is the $2.00 favourite. Pete's view is he shouldn't be anywhere near it on a wet deck.

The history is clear: Western Empire does not handle the wrong side of a soft 5. Disregard last start, which was never upgraded to a good 4 but the whispers on course suggested it was better than the soft 5 they stamped it. The map makes it worse — drawn barrier 13, he's going back in the field. If the track stays where it is, Pistol says he has to be closer to $3 at minimum, and even then he'd be hesitant.

Rope Them In is the potential play. Paul Harvey rode him with intent last time in the Belmont Sprint — crossed to lead early, was crossed again, sat behind the tempo and was still clearly the best of the horses on pace with a gap back to third. On a wet track, with a map advantage over the favourite, and Harvey having a read on him now, Pistol can't quite get to a bet at the current price but is watching closely as track conditions develop over the next 48 hours.

The pace picture shapes up with Hoba West from barrier 1 likely to roll forward, Sentimental Hero potentially more aggressive stepping up to 1600, and Diamond Scene and Let's Galahvant from wide draws possibly pushing forward given they're better suited on pace and building fitness ahead of the Strickland in a fortnight. PA doesn't expect the tempo to get anywhere near what they saw in the Belmont Sprint — which only helps Rope Them In further given he could be seen as a distance query but should also have that positional advantage.

Race 4 — Desert Whisper and Too Dardy

An interesting race built around a mare who loves this kind of track. Desert Whisper won first up this prep on a good surface — that was as good as she's gone first-up and as good a number as she's posted on a good surface — and any juice in the ground makes her even more formidable. Pistol has her crossing and leading almost uncontested from her barrier, with only Ginnivan the only real speed but with less gate speed, and the map setting her up perfectly. He wants more than the early bookies price of even money before fully committing, but rates her very hard to beat.

The second play and clearly the best value is Too Dardy at around $12. Good track and distance record, wet track holds no fears, and the trial back in January was solid enough to stay on the radar. Was there a setback? If so, there's enough time for him to be ready. Pistol's take: if you're playing into the race, you have to have something on him on that record alone.

Kay Tee Why is the horse he can't get anywhere near the price on — currently $4.80 which gives some juice in the market. But what to do with Keep Ita Mystery first-up no trial...?

Race 9 — Cool Memory and Wubin Gold

Two big-price plays to finish the day.

Cool Memory is the one Pistol is genuinely enthused about. The trial was the fastest of the day — the horse took a sit, quickened past a few, gapped them through the line. Barrier 16 will put punters off, as will 61.5kg, but Thermosphere Lad and Wineaclocksumwhere are both drawn nearby and will roll forward, which gives Paul Harvey a wheel to follow and a position to ghost into. First up last prep this horse won. If he's back near his best — and that trial suggested he is — Pete reckons he deserves to be a lot shorter than the current market has him, regardless of weight!

Wubin Gold rounds out the race for Pistol, purely on profile. Excellent second-up horse, strong wet track record, and barrier 2 is workable despite her tendency to begin slowly. If Troy Turner finds clear air, he expects her to be finishing hard. Big price, worth finding out.

Drakaina, the $4.40 favourite, gets a dismissive "bit ho hum" from Pistol. Thermosphere Lad won first-up but has continued to find a few better since then and looks short enough. Wineaclocksumwhere had a perfect run last time and deserves respect, but is marked appropriately. Bakeel maps well on paper but needs a new peak in WA. There's enough runners in the market that Pistol wants to be against or at least bet around.

Conclusion

A likely soft track, a vulnerable even-money favourite, and value scattered through the card if you're willing to look past the market. Pistol Pete's Belmont read this Saturday comes with the same hallmark as always — independent, map-driven, and getting his rated prices to bet early and late what the market misses. 

For that kind of analysis every week across all the major metro meetings — no bookmaker backing, no house interest — a Mailbag subscription is where the serious punters are. Catch Pete's full segment at The Mailbag Radio page.