Three Yard Variables You Need to Monitor this Winter

Since returning to the mounting yard in Victoria full-time on May 15, I’ve been diligent in keeping a database of every runner. Initially this was to monitor their parade week to week, but a second reason quickly became apparent: to judge the profitability of an individual yard factor, and how strongly I should be weighting these as an analyst. 

I’ve now seen 132 races and 1490 runners, and although that sample is still low in the grand scheme of analysis (it’s not even a full seasonal change, let alone a full racing season), I’m already starting to identify a few factors which are good indicators for a horse running well or poorly. Whether or not these are specific to Winter in Melbourne is the question, with general fitness and strength likely to change a fair bit as we enter Spring. For those yet to read my yard glossary, I suggest you do so as it provides some more insight in to what these descriptions mean. 

The three variables that stand out to me early are:

1. ’Not much to come’ (Muscle category)

This is the term I use when a runner has gone from having a good level of muscle condition to one where the horse is starting to tip in to potentially needing a spell, or is losing condition. It may be coincidental given it is a cold Winter in Melbourne, and indeed the number of runners fitting this description may decrease approaching Spring, but to date I’ve seen 179 horses in this category and only 5 have won. Analysing these based on their Betfair price 5 mins prior to the jump, that’s negative 67% profitability, after 7% commission. It’s been a consistent indicator that these runners are to be avoided, especially if deeper in to their prep.

2. ‘Relaxed’ (Behaviour)

Rather self-explanatory, but runners that are parading relaxed during the cold, often wet or windy conditions, are performing well. I’ve identified 307 runners that fit this category, with 40 of those winning. Initially on review, I thought that number of total runners might have been a little high to produce a profitable return, but it’s still sitting at 16% profit after commission, although less then when compared with the price at 10am which sits at 31% (market percentage adjusted to 100%). It’s of course impossible to gauge if a horse is relaxed the morning of a race, so there is some market ‘shift’ to these runners, but whether or not it comes further as we get more ‘eyes on ponies’ heading to Spring remains to be seen. 

3. ‘Negative strapper’ (Other)

I feel like every time I mention this variable I’m going to cop it in the neck from a strapper next time I’m on course. Let me be clear, it’s not to say anyone is not doing their job well! I certainly don’t envy anyone trying to control, sooth, guide or assist a 500kg animal of flight before they race. But I certainly feel some strappers are better than others at getting the most out of their horse, whether that means reducing anxiety or keeping them away from misbehaving horses. When marking ‘negative’ I’m looking for behaviours that may increase stress levels of their horse, and it appears that this is indeed a poor indicator of a good performance. So far from 52 observations there has only been 3 winners at -38% profit after commission. This is a lesser noted variable, and one I expect to be seen even less as we get in to Spring.

Thanks to Ajay for the question! If you have a question about the mounting yard, Punting Form data or a race in general, get in touch via Discord or peter@themailbag.com.au
- Pete Anthonisz